Wednesday, September 7, 2011

The Phoenix Report: NFC South

I wonder why no one is really talking about this division.  Since 2002, every team in the NFC South has won the division at least twice.  Five of times has the division winner gone on the the NFC championship game, winning 3 of those 5 times and 2 super bowl wins.  No other division posts a record like that.

The Carolina Panthers seem to be in the final stages of rebuilding.  With Cam Newton at the helm, he can answer a few questions about his ability with a solid rookie year.  The Panthers issues have always been the health of their RBs. Deangelo Williams is a good RB but he can't stay healthy. Stewart filled in well but they were still 13th in the league in rushing.  Newton will have to improve quickly to get the Panthers out of the celler in passing.  The addition of TE Shockey can help but only if he can stay on the field.  Something he has not been able to do going back to his days in New York.  The Panthers are still looking to fill the void on defense left by Peppers departure which is a big reason why they ranked 23rd in stopping the run.  Even if Newton were to play well enough to win ROY, if the defense doesn't stop anyone then the Panthers won't finish any better then last in the division.  Not much room to fall after a 2-14 season.  8-8 should be the goal for this team.  They will show flashes at times this season but finish no better then 6-10.

The Atlanta Falcons were an overachieving disappointment last season.  13-3 division winners with the best record in the NFC and second best overall, then went out and got plastered by the eventual champion Packers. Things won't get any easier for them either.  The Falcons have a tough schedule having to play team that were close to being playoff teams last year, save the Panthers and the Lions.  This team will have to prove that they are as good or better then last year's team.  The Falcons are capable as long as the wideouts stay healthy and the establish their running game.  Even more important, the Falcons must defend the pass better.  Aaron Rodgers threw for 336 yards and only had 5 incomplete passes and zero INTs.  The Falcons must play consistantly and not fall apart.  My pick to win this division again at 12-4.

In order for Tampa Bay to get over the hump and back into the playoffs, QB Freeman will have to step up and raise his game.  After a decent season last year, Freeman must establish himself as a "elite" QB and take pressure off of the running game.  He need to compliment it instead of rely on it.  Tampa Bay ranked 8th in rushing but 17th in passing.  Top 10 is what is needed in order for the Bucs to compete in this division.  On defense, being able to run on the Bucs used to be unheard of.  Used to be.  Sapp and Lynch aren't walking through the door!  The front 4 must close up the holes and running lanes and continue to get pressure on the QBs.  Tampa Bay is a wild card team at 11-5.

The Saints strength is also their weakness.  Since winning the superbowl, the Saints have been a top 5 team in passing but always in the bottom 3rd in rushing.  They brought in Sproles to replace Bush and for what reason? Sproles isn't any better then Bush is.  Sproles isn't as dangerous as Bush is, even with the injuries.  As long as the Saints running game stay non-existant, the Saints will not return to being a superbowl team.  With Tampa Bay getting better, the Saints can't afford to be stagnate.  Brees will be Brees but Thomas must step up and take pressure off of Brees by running the ball effectively.  Averaging 3.3yrds per carry isn't going to get it done.  Saints will finish 10-6 and 3rd in the division.

D!

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